The main score comes from chronological UFC results: everyone starts at 1500 Elo, and wins over stronger opponents earn more. We use career-peak Elo plus a limited title-win bonus, mapped to a 52–98 score. Attribute weights adjust that base by at most 3 points.

Attribute proxies shrink toward neutral 50 when UFC sample sizes are small. Speed, cardio, and fight IQ remain neutral because this dataset cannot establish them. Missing inputs also use 50. These are model assumptions, not measured athlete abilities. The model does not adjust for age, era, weight, or stylistic interactions.

Probability = 100 ÷ (1 + 10^((B score − A score) ÷ 12)). The scale of 12 is a configurable assumption. No historical calibration has been performed.